Without making a final decision, here is a short analysis of the American horses probable for the $20 million Saudi Cup. The 1,800-meter race is scheduled for Saturday at King Abdulaziz Racecourse and features a true international cast.
Why is the focus only on Americans in this post? The Americans dominated the race last year by hitting three of the top four spots, and the same outcome is likely again.
Knicks Go
Most readers do not need a long essay on Knicks Go. After switching to the Brad Cox barn, he suddenly became a consistent horse and won four races in a row, including the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup last month. He won all of those races in gate-to-wire fashion, which is possibly his one kryptonite.
One day, the one-dimensional style might catch up with him. Perhaps the day arrives this week with Charlatan likely to keep him company up front, if no one else. That kind of pressure will feel different than what Last Judgement gave him in the opening half of the Pegasus.
Also, this is a pretty demanding schedule for a horse who did not appear for almost eight months after his first win for Cox last February at Oaklawn. Knicks Go went from the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland to the Pegasus World Cup, and now he ships to the Middle East for his first start overseas.
Can Knicks Go keep firing, or will the schedule and travel wear him out?
Otherwise, it is hard to knock a horse who keeps winning races.
Charlatan
Charlatan began his career quickly with three straight wins, including the
first division of the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn, which he won by a clear
margin after setting the pace. But he was disqualified from the Arkansas
Derby victory after a positive drug test and then went on the shelf with an
injury.
When Charlatan came back in the Malibu Stakes (G1), he put away a flashy sprinter in Nashville before drawing clear again in the stretch for another powerful win.
As seen when he opens up late, Charlatan always saves his best for the stretch run. At the same time, he has enough speed to either press the leader or stalk, or he can even set the pace if necessary. He holds a lethal combination of options in terms of tactics.
Trainer Bob Baffert is not a stranger to this race after finishing fourth with Mucho Gusto. This time, he sends a horse who only knows how to finish first.
With his early speed and raw talent, Charlatan is a clear threat to Knicks Go.
Tacitus
Some handicappers want to call Tacitus a Grade 2 or 3 runner. That is probably not true. With several on-the-board finishes in Grade 1 races in tow, he deserves to compete against the best. He only needs to figure out a way to finally win one.
In his most recent start in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he closed well to complete the superfecta by beating two good horses in Maximum Security and Tiz the Law at the wire.
One start before that, Tacitus gave up his best chance for a Grade 1 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont by setting the pace, a position which does not suit him. He was passed by the inexperienced Happy Saver and Mystic Guide.
It is questionable whether blinkers are necessary on this horse, especially if he runs as a closer. If a fast pace builds up between Knicks Go, Charlatan and other runners, the race might set up for his late punch.
Sleepy Eyes Todd
After sharp wins in the Lafayette Stakes and Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3), Sleepy Eyes Todd’s future in one-turn races felt bright. In the Lafayette effort, he cut through the field like butter in the stretch. Then in the Mr. Prospector, he held off nice horses in Firenze Fire and Mind Control.
Sleepy Eyes Todd is not a horse to stick in one division, though. Trainer Miguel Angel Silva decided to take a shot in the nine-furlong Pegasus World Cup, and he closed for a mild fourth after lagging toward the back in 10th for most of the race.
Now, he is listed as a probable for the Saudi Cup.
The strange part is that Sleepy Eyes Todd can flash more early speed in routes. But Silva does not want to risk fading late. He is quoted in Gulfstream News & Barn Notes as saying, “save the horse and finish strong. That’s what we like.”
If he could only sit closer as a stalker, it would work out better than attempting "come from the clouds" tactics. Expect Sleepy Eyes Todd to take up the rear and pick off horses late for another possible check.
Max Player
Max Player? That is a name not heard in a while.
After winning the Withers Stakes (G3) last year with pace help, he was then third in the Belmont Stakes, third in the Travers Stakes (G1), fifth in the Kentucky Derby and fifth in the Preakness. Despite completing the trifecta, Max Player was not a real threat in the Belmont or Travers.
Until proven otherwise, this is another mild closer who needs help on the front end to show his best. Max Player passes horses late in the stretch, but he is never a real threat. He accomplishes only enough to secure a check for his connections and move on to the next big race.
In fairness, a lot could change as a 4-year-old colt. Young horses are liable to improve and mature from their previous form. Perhaps this one takes a step forward.
But he needs to show it first. Preferably, betting is not based on hope, but rather on proven evidence seen on paper and in watching replays.
Mishriff wins with Egan riding.
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